When India was busy trading tirades against Bangladesh, the incumbent interim government chief adviser, Dr Muhammad Yunus, had two separate agendas on his mind. At the same time, the Chinese were already on the playground with no defender to protect the goalpost.

India often boasts of top diplomatic skills and maneuverability, a legacy of Chanakya who is regarded as a great thinker and diplomat in India. However, New Delhi has continued mishandling Bangladesh, which produced diplomatic blunders.

New Delhi’s South Block from day one has been playing with Hindu card since Dr Yunus took the oath of office on August 9.

Hindus have been attacked and the Bangladesh government has failed to protect them, is the official Indian mantra.

New Delhi’s South Block from day one has been playing with Hindu card since Dr Yunus took the oath of office on August 9.

Why is India playing the Hindu card?

India has functional democratic institutions and is apparently a secular state, but the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) under Narendra Modi stands for Hindutva – a right-wing ethno-nationalist political ideology that defines the cultural identity of India in terms of Hinduism and desires to make India an overtly Hindu nation state.

Anyway, the Indian media has been upbeat with the recent attacks, vandalism of Hindu business establishments, and desecration of temples, and is cursing Dr Yunus that he will go down in history for his failures.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi raised the Hindu card with Dr Yunus when they held a phone conversation a few days after the latter took oath of his office.

Meanwhile, the Hindus, Christians, Buddhists, the Adivasis (ethnic communities) and even the Ahmadis were soft targets of the radicalized Muslim majoritarian Bangladesh in the mayhem that followed the tumultuous events leading to the escape of Sheikh Hasina.

The ousted Sheikh Hasina administration always gave an impression that China, Russia and of course India are ‘all-weather friends’ of Bangladesh.

China stood with Pakistan and ignored calls for condemnation of the Pakistan’s atrocities leading to the birth of Bangladesh in 1971.

The ousted Sheikh Hasina administration always gave an impression that China, Russia and of course India are ‘all-weather friends’ of Bangladesh.

When Pakistan recognized Bangladesh in February 1974, China continued refusing to extend diplomatic recognition of an independent Bangladesh. In fact, Beijing deliberately blocked Bangladesh’s membership twice in the United Nations. China also opposed its membership of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), a forum of 120 countries.

Yes, Beijing recognized Dhaka in August 1975, a few days after the architect of Bangladesh’s independence Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was assassinated in a military putsch. That is history but we don’t live in history and relationship change, sometimes into the very opposite.

Bangladesh is of strategic importance to China. Its location in the eastern part of the Indian Ocean means it is ideally situated for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Chinese President Xi Jinping’s signature project aimed at boosting China’s economic and political influence by implementing a raft of infrastructure projects and trade networks worldwide, writes Dang Yuan, in Deutsche Welle.

Meanwhile, China has been involved in several infrastructure projects in Bangladesh, with some completed and some ongoing. China is also discussing to advance and continue these projects with the Yunus administration.

China has been Bangladesh’s largest trading partner for 12 years in a row. “China has built 12 roads, 21 bridges and 27 power plants in Bangladesh,” Yao Wen, China’s ambassador to Bangladesh, said during a BRI event in Dhaka in September 2023. “Chinese companies have created 550,000 new jobs here,” wrote the Deutsche Welle journalist.

When it comes to defense ties, China supplied 72 per cent of the weapons Bangladesh needed between 2019 and 2023, according to SIPRI, a Swedish think tank focusing on global conflict and security, wrote Dang Yuan.

China has been Bangladesh’s largest trading partner for 12 years in a row.

China played a key role in the construction of the “BNS Sheikh Hasina” naval base south of Chittagong. The base was inaugurated in 2023 and has a space for six submarines and eight warships.

Beijing had also supplied two submarines BNS Nabajatra and BNS Joyjatra, commissioned in 2017, as well as a significant proportion of frigates and corvettes to the Bangladeshi navy which are already stationed there for more than a year.

Among the friends in the past, the quick summersault was first made by China when the Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi said Beijing would also encourage greater cooperation and partnership between the companies of the two nations. He said Bangladesh would also benefit from the Chinese decision to allow zero-tariff access to all goods from the Least Developed Countries (LDC).

On the other hand, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi meet Dr Yunus at the margins of the United National General Assembly in New York.

China took a clear line in its response to the recent ouster of Sheikh Hasina and the formation of an interim government. “We want to further develop the ‘all-round strategic partnership’ with the new government in Bangladesh,” said a Chinese spokeswoman recently.

This confirms that Beijing switched allegiance from Hasina to Yunus when a medical team from the Chinese Red Cross arrived in Bangladesh to treat the students and protesters writhing in pain from grievous injuries during the Monsoon Revolution in July-August people’s uprising.

Earlier, Hasina, during her autocratic 15-year rule, learned how to balance Bangladesh’s ties between the two Asian powers. As a reliable partner, she did not want to upset New Delhi, but she also wanted to win over Beijing.

After her controversial re-election in January 2024, she first visited India, then China weeks later. And since a mass uprising forced her to flee the country, Hasina has found refuge in India.

Dr Yunus thanked China for their understanding, cooperation and collaboration which will strengthen the Bangladesh-China bilateral relationship.

The chief adviser stressed closer relations with China and talked about opening “a new chapter” in the ties between the two countries. Bangladesh also welcomed Chinese investment in solar companies.

While there is a hope that this is the first step in a democratic transition, Bangladesh will find itself stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Wang described Dr Yunus as “an old friend of the Chinese people,” and congratulated him for assuming the leadership of the new government.

“We have full confidence that you will live up to the expectations of the people,” he said, adding he would unite the country.

Earlier on August 25, Chinese Ambassador Yao Wen met with Dr Yunus and said that China strictly follows the principle of non-interference in other countries’ internal affairs, respecting the development path independently chosen by the Bangladeshi people, and expressed hope that Bangladesh will achieve unity, stability, development, and prosperity soon.

The Chinese ambassador in recent weeks has made hectic diplomatic engagements with members of the new government.

According to the website of the Chinese embassy, since 1 September, Yao has met with Muhammad Fouzul Kabir Khan (Adviser of new government), Wahiduddin Mahmud (Planning and Education Adviser), Nurjahan Begum (Health and Family Warfare Adviser), Shafiqur Rahman of Jamaat-e-Islami and Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).

Analysts say the ambassador’s extensive outreach to various sectors in Bangladesh indicates that bilateral relations are likely to remain stable despite domestic political changes and these frequent interactions are expected to further strengthen cooperation between the two countries.

Bangladesh’s transition to democracy will be challenging. At the same time, Bangladesh’s geopolitical position embroils it in the larger geopolitical competition for regional dominance between China and India in South Asia. With India seemingly protecting Hasina from extradition to face a trial in Bangladesh, ties between the two are likely to worsen.

India may also reject Bangladesh’s next government as tilting toward China. While there is a hope that this is the first step in a democratic transition, Bangladesh will find itself stuck between a rock and a hard place, wrote Jacob Dickinson in Dyami, a security intelligence think-tank based in the Netherlands.