On the anniversary of the Al-Aqsa Storm and after the Operation True Promise II which showed the ineffectiveness of Israel’s defense in intercepting Iranian missiles, it can now be said with more certainty that Tel Aviv’s deterrence theory has failed miserably in the given environment.

The October 7 operation – conducted by Hamas last year after breaking the Israeli defense wall and shocking the Zionist forces – produced the highest number of casualties, which was unprecedented in the history of Israel.

The deterrence theory has failed in the Middle East region, especially in Israel’s case, and it will take a long time to find an alternative.

And on the northern front, Hezbollah destroyed the defense structure of Israel in a way that the residents of the Al-Jalil region inevitably had to relocate to safer areas.

Yemeni missiles also occasionally bypassed the Israeli air defense and entered the lands occupied by Israel.

It was said that Ibrahim Aqeel, the martyred commander of Hezbollah, was planning to enter the Galilee region and carry out an operation similar to the Al-Aqsa Storm. If such a statement is true, it means that Israel no longer has a safe place, and its terrain and skies are open to the Axis of Resistance.

The Israeli regime spent many years adopting the latest technological achievements of the United States and the West as well as the use of costly equipment and weapons.

With the presence of the Iron Dome, the David Sling, and the Arrow 3, they believed that it could intercept any short-range and long-range projectile.

Israeli authorities saw and arrogantly ignored the measures that were being taken by the Axis of Resistance, like digging tunnels and stockpiling weapons. They thought that their complex defense system had created a sufficient and complete deterrence for Israel’s safety.

However, things have changed.

By examining the actions of the resistance axis and especially the Operation True Promise, it has been determined that all of Israel’s security measures on the ground and in the air, as well as advanced communication and telecommunication technologies, have not prevented heavy strikes deep into the occupied land.

It seems that the military commanders, angry at the inefficiency and poor performance of these defense systems, have received a clear message that no place in Israel is safe anymore, and their strategic deterrence has failed.

The Israeli regime spent many years adopting the latest technological achievements of the United States and the West as well as the use of costly equipment and weapons.

Israel’s aggressive behavior in recent weeks should be analyzed in this framework:

So, Tel Aviv intends to announce that if Israel is not safe, then the entire Middle East should not be safe either.

How? By activating various fronts – West Bank, Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq – as well as increasing the operations deep in Syria and intensifying aggression against Gaza, and also creating a front with the Islamic Republic of Iran. The current situation is proof of a new arrangement intensifying tensions and disturbing the region’s geostrategic balance.

Also read: Netanyahu Is Dragging Everyone Into War

The continuous Israeli bombings in various countries of the region now threaten not only the Middle East but the whole world.

Many countries in West Asia are now worried about the spread of war and getting into unwanted conflicts. This issue is clearly raised by Abdul Fattah Al-Sisi, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, King Abdullah II, the Gulf Cooperation Council leaders and others.

The uncertainty about the future of Gaza, Hamas, ceasefire, the two state solution and Lebanon along with the situation in the West Bank are threatened due to the expansion of Israel’s insecure activities. As a result, the fate of not only the Middle East but also the whole world is unknown.

The world is waiting every day for the surprises of this devastating war. The collapse of Israel’s deterrence theory and the heavy losses – especially wasting billions of dollars to counter the cheap resistance-oriented missiles – it suffered has brought the regime’s aggression to its peak. In fact, Israel had been taken out of its deterrence lock.

The Abrahamic Accords are meaningless without Saudi Arabia’s participation, and the Saudi leaders are unlikely to join these until the idea of the two states is finalized.

Moreover, Israel’s aggressive behavior in dealing with the defenseless people of the region has also put Arab countries under severe pressure, especially those which had normalized relations with Tel Aviv.

Israel currently does not make any distinction between militiamen and civilians, resistance people and ordinary people, Shia, Sunni, and Druze. The blind killings, which the Zionist regime claims to be targeted, put the leaders of the Arab countries, who are not happy with the Axis of Resistance either, in such an awkward position that they cannot remain indifferent to the war crimes committed by Israel.

Hence, the Abrahamic Accords are meaningless without Saudi Arabia’s participation, and the Saudi leaders are unlikely to join these until the idea of the two states is finalized.

Some analysts may think that Israel’s current destructive actions against Hamas and Hezbollah are part of Israel’s deterrent actions in restoring security to its land borders. How? By removing the resistance from the core of the Israeli regime in the triangle of Haifa, Tel Aviv, and Jerusalem. It means that the resistance would be stopped forever by destroying infrastructure and eliminating key figures. But it seems that these ideas do not match with the reality.

At least, Israel’s experiences in the 33-day and 22-day wars against Hezbollah and Gaza showed that the resistance quickly rises from the ruins. By renewing its strength and learning from the defeats, it will appear stronger and more powerful in the field.

At the same time, expanding the war in the region into a regional war is a double whammy: If it flares up, it will also involve the great powers in the conflict.

The war between Russia and Ukraine has brought the relations between the great powers to the lowest levels. Such developments make conflict resolution difficult.

At the level of West Asia, it will not only become more complex with time but also lead to a further increase in tensions between the global powers.

On the other hand, the experience of last year’s negotiations to resolve the Gaza crisis showed that the United States alone, and even with its European and regional allies, is not able to resolve regional issues. The unilateral support extended by the US and the Western to Israel under “the right of self-defense” has not only jeopardized the security of American forces in the region but also provoked protests from different countries. As a result, public opinion around the world and pressure has increased even among the American elites.

Although China and Russia have a massive presence behind the scenes of the events in the region, this does not mean that they are trying to solve the crisis. Perhaps, both countries benefit from the West’s involvement in Middle East issues.

Russia has interests in disrupting the concentration of the West in supporting Ukraine and China in disrupting the India-Israel corridor. In addition, not only the war in the Middle East has cost America and Israel billions of dollars, but also affected international transportation.

Also, the inflationary effects of this war have affected all countries and damaged the region’s foreign investments, tourism revenues, and other economic sectors.

Although separating the Axis of Resistance from each other is on Israel’s current agenda, it will not be able to restore the balance of violence to the balance of peace.

In the medium term, the Israeli regime struggles to create a strategic compromise and launch the Abrahamic Accords. Israel does not have the necessary options to maintain and guarantee the security of the corridor between India and Israel and is also unable to surrender before the Axis of Resistance.

Because the majority of voters associated with synagogues and the Israeli elites do not agree with the two states solution.

Thus, Israel no longer has a suitable solution to encourage Saudi Arabia and other countries to join the Abrahamic Accords.

Although separating the Axis of Resistance from each other is on Israel’s current agenda, it will not be able to restore the balance of violence to the balance of peace despite the severity of the destruction.

The Middle East region is now facing two completely different scenarios:

A delayed ceasefire scenario, in which the level of tension increases and sometimes the exchange of long-range fire between Iran and Israel as well as the continuation of attacks by Hezbollah, Ansarullah, Hashd al-Shaabi [Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF)] and other groups may eventually force Israel to reduce the tension and accept a peace agreement by bearing heavy losses.

Tel Aviv will use everything within its power to the divide the resistance front during the opening between the ceasefire agreement and a full-scale war.

Alternatively, the region could enter into a full-scale war with the presence of United States and its Western allies, in which the Axis of Resistance attacks the American bases in the region and probably drags the Arab countries, Russia, and China into the conflict.

Despite extending absolute and unlimited support to Israel while ignoring the war crimes and genocide as well as heavy military presence in the region, the US does not want to engage in a full-scale war. The reason is simple: a full-scale war can reduce the United States’ ability to deter against to challenge posed by Iran, Russia, and China. At the same time, it may shake internal status quo in the US more than before.

However, Israel wants maximum bloodshed and destruction in the vacuum created by the US presidential election and the inaction on the part of international community.

Therefore, Tel Aviv will use everything within its power to the divide the resistance front during the opening between the ceasefire agreement and a full-scale war.

On the other hand, the resistance front still has the necessary efficiency and hidden surprises. The deterrence theory has failed in the Middle East region, especially in Israel’s case, and it will take a long time to find an alternative.