As the Iranian missile strikes impacted multiple locations in Israel on Tuesday, the world started watching the Middle East developments even more closely. It was a risk that Iran had to take after assassination of Hamas political chief Ismael Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut. Silence was not an option. Israel successfully dragged Iran to the escalatory ladder barely a month before Americans go to the Nov 5 polls.

If Haniyeh’s killing right in the Iranian capital was embarrassing, the bombing of Hezbollah headquarters could only be described a massive strategic and psychological blow. So, it was not surprising that the Iranian government was under pressure at both domestic and international levels.

Hence, the timing of missile strikes was carefully chosen. Unlike the past when Iran went for late night hours to hit the US targets in Iraq or Israel itself, Tehran opted for a well-choreographed exercise. It showcased the Iranian pride by launching the Iran-made missiles in the evening so that the Iranian people could see the projectiles flying over their heads.

“The government wanted people to see” the launch of missiles and there was live coverage too, says Hamid Reza, who is a director at DiploHouse, in Tehran.

Similar views were expressed by Prof Fowad Izadi of Tehran University, who says public pressure was one of the reasons for carrying out the missile strikes.

One can’t blame the Iranian people as Israel is trying to cripple Hezbollah – the most power organization associated with Iran in the region – by constant bombing.

According to Izadi, it is the culture of resistance that generated this demand. Hence, the disappointment and despondence were replaced by celebrations, as a large number of people carrying Iranian, Palestinian and Lebanese flags came out on the streets.

HAS PAST IRAN ITS PEAK?

“Usually, decapitation hits involve the elimination of the head of an organization. What has happened to Hezbollah is not just the killing of its leader but the wiping out of nearly its entire military leadership and severe blows to its offensive capabilities.”

These views were expressed by Kamran Bokhari – a national security and foreign policy specialist – in a recent series of posts on X. He is serving as a senior director at Washington DC-based New Lines Institute.

Earlier in January 2020, Bokhari had said after the assassination of senior Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani that “Iran has long past its peak”.

ARE THE GULF STATES REALLY DESPERATE TO LATCH ONTO THE OPPORTUNITY?

Given the historic rivalry between Iran and the neighboring Arab states, it is important to understand about their priorities.

In this regard, Bokhari is of the opinion that the Gulf States have been pleased by the damage done to Hezbollah.

His argument means that they want a weakened and less influential Iran – the second-most powerful country in the Middle East after Israel.

“While publicly they will condemn Israel for destabilizing the region, the Arab states privately are likely celebrating over the massive blow to Hezbollah. Because it is a major blow to their biggest adversary Iran.”

He even sees an attempt to fill the possible vacuum created in Lebanon.

“Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will try to use this opportunity to revive Hezbollah’s opposition in Lebanon, which for decades had been reeling under the domination of the pro-Iranian Lebanese Shia Islamist movement. It is a historic opportunity for them but it is a major challenge for which they are likely not prepared.”

However, this thinking seems flawed and simplistic in nature given the fact that Iranian President Iranian Masoud Pezeshkian and Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan have held a meeting in Doha. And there are reports that the Gulf States – which are the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members – assured Iran of their neutrality in the conflict with Israel.

‘ONLY ISRAEL WANTS AN WAR, NOT IRAN’:

Middle East has three main players: Iran, Israel and the United States. There is a general consensus that Iran doesn’t want a full-blown direct conflict.

In this connection, Reza says Iran has never desired a large-scale war, as “security and stability” are the top priority for Tehran.

He explains the often-repeated reasoning behind this approach: With Iran facing external threats like the Iran-Iraq war soon after the Iranian Revolution and the repeated terrorism acts in the country, it was necessary for Tehran to expand the concept of “security and stability” beyond its borders.

It is a direct reference to the Axis of Resistance, comprising Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and other groups in Syria and Iraq.

However, the critics describe this an attempt to export the Iranian Revolution to other countries and ensure Iran’s dominance in the region.

Coming back to the main players, Reza believes that even the United States isn’t ready for large-scale war. His views are seconded by many around the world.

However, one cannot be sure as far as the US is concerned.

It has President Joe Biden who doesn’t want any escalation in the Ukraine war and is not allowing the use of long-range missiles against the targets in Russia. But the same Biden is supplying all kinds of weapons to Israel which has killed over 41,000 Palestinians and around 2,000 people in Lebanon so far. In fact, Israel is expanding the war theatre constantly, with the latest reports suggesting Israeli jets pounding the coastal cities in Syria.

That’s why the promised ceasefire in Gaza hasn’t materialized so far, as the US is pleading the case for Israel’s right to self-defense. However, no has bothered to define this right of self-defense yet; hence, the expansion in Israel’s military actions.

ISRAEL HAS BIDEN AND MAYBE A TRUMP CARD AS WELL:

Notwithstanding his extremist nature and policies, Prime Benjamin Netanyahu has a solid case for receiving due recognition. Everyone talks about former US president Donald Trump for his role in the rise of far-right in the world, especially the developed West. People mention Brazilian Trump, Indian Trump, Hungarian Trump, Pakistani Trump and now the Argentinian Trump.

However, the fact of the matter is that Netanyahu was first to come into power 1996 and has since then really influenced the international affairs. And the potential second term for Trump after next month’s US presidential election means Netanyahu will get his solid ideological ally back in the Oval Office.

The Middle East tensions are certainly a boost to Trump, as he can now advocate his hardline policies towards Iran even more vigorously.

One cannot forget that it was Trump who had sowed the seeds of current turmoil by withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal after he won the 2016 election. And he is already using threatening language about Iran. Not a good omen for the world.

So, this leads us to the most important and most hated scenario: an all-out war in the region. Now add the possibility that Israel achieves its goal of ensuring complete capitulation of Iran at the end.

MAKE IRAN DOCILE. BUT HOW WILL YOU GET THAT?

The Middle East conflict has been all about addressing the Palestine question. Despite the Oslo Accords, the two-state solution is now a far-fetched dream as there is no appetite in Israel for recognizing the rights of Palestinians as a people. Hence, the dispute has now practically moved towards how to control Iran and its allied groups, which are listed as likeminded but independent groups by Tehran and proxies by its rivals.

Now, there are several questions: How Israel [and perhaps the US too] is going to make Iran docile? By making the Iranian allies ineffective and then striking Iran or working on both fronts? What kind of change Israel wants in Iran? Is it regime change? How? By backing separatist movements and other groups? What is the replacement?

The reason is that the current Iranian system will never accept any surrender, as it will bring the very existence of the Islamic Republic into question.

Meanwhile, all these options require violence, which cannot be condoned.

Also, the West, as well as Israel, must remember that they can’t repeat a 1953. Times have changed. What they had done back then? A joint operation by the American CIA and the British MI6 had toppled the government of Mohammad Mosaddegh.

But at the same time, there is even bigger problem with this approach. There is very little possibility of the Iranian people accepting any sort of subjugation despite the differences many of them may have with the theocratic state structure. Anyone thinking that this goal may be achieved isn’t on a right track.

Can one afford another failed or conflict-ridden state in the world and that too in a volatile region like Middle East? The answer is NO, although Netanyahu and the likeminded will disagree.

ANYONE READY FOR AXIS OF RESISTANCE FRAGMENTATION? 

But the worst-case scenario gets even worse if we examine the whole equation by taking the Axis of Resistance into account.

Hezbollah, the Houthis and other groups are backed and armed by Iran, but they are a product of local ground realities and overall regional situation. Tehran has just taken advantage of the available resources.

If Iran is defeated militarily, then surely these groups will be weakened. But they won’t just vanish from the face of the earth.

Why?

Because Israel is there, the Palestinians are there, the Hezbollah supporters are there, the Houthis are there, the Shia-Sunni divide is there, the Arab-Persian divide is there, and the general discontent against the rulers in different states is there.

Currently, these entities have centralized command and control systems to sustain their respective organizational structure. But once you eliminate the leadership and destroy the structure, one cannot stop the members going violent and forming smaller militant groups.

It will be a nightmare for even the rival Arab states at a time when Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are pursuing economic diversification. The two governments have set high targets for economic growth and making their countries economic hubs, which requires “security and stability”.

Perhaps, this is the reason why Hussain Haqqani – a former Pakistani ambassador to the US, who is now associated with the Hudson Institute, says, “No one, least of all the Gulf countries, is looking for escalation.”

Certainly, regional stability and security is the prime focus for the Gulf States, which will face the brunt of a direct confrontation indirectly.

WILL OTHER GLOBAL POWERS REMAIN SILENT?

In today’s multi-polar world, one cannot ignore how China and Russia will act in case of a wider Israeli aggression.

The Chinese foreign ministry has said China opposes the violation of Lebanon’s sovereignty, security and territorial integrity as well as any moves that fuel antagonism and escalate tensions.

Urging the international community, especially major countries, to play a constructive role and avoid further turmoil, China described the protracted fighting in Gaza as the root cause of the current Middle East.

Similarly, Russian foreign ministry spokesperson says the United States’ approach in the Middle East is a “complete failure” and “A bloody drama that is only gaining momentum. The White House’s incomprehensible statements demonstrate its complete helplessness in resolving crises”.

One must recall that China had brokered a peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia in March last year, after decades of enmity and a formal cutting of ties in 2016.

At the same time, both China and Russia will push for a declining US influence in the region – a trend which is already in progress. It means that China, Russia and Iran have one common agenda – pushing the US out of the Middle East. However, how three countries want to achieve the goal remains unclear.

Meanwhile, China and Russia have been critical of the Israeli policies during the past year.

WHAT IS IN STORE FOR PAKISTAN?

In all likelihood, India will covertly support Israel in a campaign against Iran, while maintaining a public posture against escalation. This position is going to have a direct impact on the security of Pakistan, which will certainly be on a high-alert given the fact it shares borders will Iran.

At the same time, Pakistan will extend moral and diplomatic support to Iran, as any war in Middle East is against the country’s national interests, especially if Israel or the US support the separatists in Iran.

LIFE ON A SLIDE:

Meanwhile, Iran has shown patience amid the provocative and aggressive Israeli actions. That is why Izadi says Tehran didn’t respond after Haniyeh’s assassination although it had a right to do so under Article 51 of the UN Charter.

He says the US and the European nations had given an impression that a ceasefire would soon come into effect; however, not only the Palestinians continued facing genocide but the aggression and the resultant killings expanded into Lebanon.

Iran had to respond, otherwise, the Israeli actions would continue, he noted.

Amid an unending aggression, “this will remain a long-term government policy, although it may lead us to war,” warns Izadi.

On the other hand, Biden has now stated that the US will not back military strikes on the Iranian nuclear facilities and any response should be proportionate.

But one has to see whether Israel abides by the rules set by Biden, as Tel Aviv under Netanyahu has defied the US policies on multiple occasions in recent months.

At the same time, the latest developments show the prospects of an Israeli attack on Iran are increasing. It can target nuclear plants, missile launch pads, other military installations as well as oil and gas production centers. But one cannot rule out the possibility of Netanyahu opting for eliminating the top Iranian leadership by targeting their residences.

At a time when everyone is calling for prudent actions and restraint, it seems Netanyahu doesn’t want peace and stability. His policies represent the idea of a dominant Israel which doesn’t have any competitor in the region after complete annihilation of all possible rivals, thus making a perfect case against the white supremacists ever coming into power.