Imran Khan, once again, sits in jail but has not abandoned his political playbook. He has issued a call on Monday from Adiala jail for a new sit-in at D-Chowk, Islamabad — a tactic that reminded me of 2014 when his 126 days of prolonged sit-in caused the cancellation of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit, halting critical economic discussions. This move and the continuous calls of failed but chaotic rallies and protests threaten to sabotage the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, scheduled for October 15 and 16 in Islamabad. Given the importance of this moment for Pakistan’s economy, regional and domestic tensions, and international alignments, can we afford to let history repeat itself?

This is not a fight for civilian supremacy but rather an effort to regain personal power at any cost.

Economically, Pakistan cannot afford this instability. Thanks to an IMF loan, the nation has narrowly avoided default, and the SCO summit presents an important opportunity to Pakistan for bolstering regional ties and securing further investments. Additionally, Pakistan’s potential to join BRICS could be a game changer, offering alternatives to the US-dominated global financial system. However, Imran’s relentless political agitation is undermining these prospects.

Also read: Gandapur Pushing For Governor’s Rule. You’re Gonna Get It

Since his ouster in 2022, Imran’s brand of populism has adopted new dimensions of a dangerous tone. While he projects himself as anti-establishment, the reality is that his political movement is precisely driven by personal vendettas, particularly against current Chief of Army Staff Gen Asim Munir. This is not a fight for civilian supremacy but rather an effort to regain personal power at any cost. The May 9 riots, where military installations were attacked, represent an unprecedented challenge to the military’s authority, signaling not just defiance but a planned uprising to overthrow Gen Asim Munir. Meanwhile, the judiciary has also played a vicious role by not convicting any accused being a vital partner of Imran’s crusade against the military.

Hence, I recall a significant conversation with Gen Pervez Musharraf during my PhD research. Musharraf advocated that military intervention in politics was essential for its ‘survival’ to discourage civilian penetration of political heroism. However, I argued — and time has proven — that by endorsing Imran Khan, the military compromised its institutional integrity, tearing apart its internal cohesion. The trial of Lt Gen (retd) Faiz Hameed — marking the first prosecution of a former spy chief — is an unprecedented consequence of this failure. Faiz, who once aligned himself with Imran to be the future army chief, reportedly orchestrated an attempted rebellion within the army after his retirement, a failed coup against Gen Asim Munir. This attempted rebellion culminated in the infamous May 9 riots, which saw military installations attacked, further proving the dangers of politicizing military leadership.

The continuous calls of failed but chaotic rallies and protests threaten to sabotage the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit.

The catastrophic failure of “Project Imran” did not just expose the vulnerabilities within the army; it shattered Musharraf’s narrative of institutional unity that the military had so carefully curated since the creation of Pakistan. In my PhD research, I extensively elaborate on post-project Imran’s “citizen-soldier paradox”, where soldiers, once revered as apolitical state protectors, have found themselves entangled in the political chaos incited by a civilian leader, to cause a rift in their intact institution.

However, Imran’s ambitions have not just dragged the military into his power struggle; his influence has also seeped into Pakistan’s judiciary and bureaucracy. Pakistani judiciary often played a dodgy role against parliamentary supremacy, but now judges have even rewritten the constitution to accommodate Imran, which is grave misconduct.

Imran’s ambitions have not just dragged the military into his power struggle; his influence has also seeped into Pakistan’s judiciary and bureaucracy.

That is where I see the nation in grave jeopardy and divided. Military cooperation with civilian governments on national security is essential globally. Still, it has morphed into something political in Pakistan, where the civilians brag about being on the same page regarding security matters. What began as a collaboration for the state’s protection has decayed into personal vendettas, distorting the role of institutions like the judiciary and bureaucracy.

Meanwhile, military’s involvement with Imran has not only harmed its neutral standing but fostered a perception of control behind the scenes — a perception as damaging as it is untrue. The instability caused by these actions has reverberated across Pakistan’s already weakened institutions. Judiciary, military, and civilian leadership are now locked in a power struggle that risks tearing the country apart.

The arrest of Faiz and the potential military trial of Imran are not isolated events but part of a broader institutional collapse. Once propped up by the establishment, Imran has become its most significant threat to fulfil foreign agendas, with May 9 marking a turning point in this evolving crisis.

The writ of the state has to be intact because Pakistan’s strategic partnership with China through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) requires stability due to ongoing terrorist activity in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Attacks on Punjabi laborers by Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) militants and terrorist strikes on Pakistan Army soldiers in Waziristan are all part of a broader conspiracy to destabilize the country. These attacks are designed to make China reconsider its investment in Gwadar, a critical piece of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. With Gwadar serving as a strategic replacement for the Malacca Strait, any regional instability could lead China to question whether Pakistan is a dependable partner.

Also read: Afghan Taliban, Al Qaeda Asked For FATA Revival. Imran Said Yes

At the same time, the region’s instability has also been compounded by the escalating conflict between Israel, Hamas and now Hezbollah, coupled with increasing Israeli acts of aggression in the name of self-defense. Though Imran has not publicly advocated for Israel, the apparent support he receives from Israeli lobbies in the US and Israeli media outlets raises questions about the broader foreign agenda at play. A coordinated campaign at international forums, including resolutions against Pakistan and the PTI letters to the IMF, adds fuel to the conspiracy that some forces are invested in pushing Pakistan toward political and economic chaos.

The catastrophic failure of “Project Imran” did not just expose the vulnerabilities within the army; it shattered Musharraf’s narrative of institutional unity.

Pakistan is already caught between great power politics as its strategic pivot toward China and Russia intensifies amid growing strains with the US. Joining BRICS could provide economic benefits, such as bypassing US dollar reliance. Still, Imran’s actions risk derailing these ambitions. His smartly crafted anti-establishment narrative serves foreign interests that would benefit from Pakistan’s destabilization. The timing of his sit-in and repeated calls for disruption during critical international moments, such as the upcoming SCO summit, cannot be dismissed as coincidental.

His tactics also call into question the integrity of the country’s judiciary and military. By aiming to create continuing chaos through Gandapur, conspiring for a divide between military and civilian governance, exacerbated by populist rhetoric, he fosters an environment where all state institutions are jeopardized, and so is the nation. Due to this perpetual chaotic populism, Pakistan’s institutional collapse may become a reality despite the selfless efforts of the current government because the judiciary is not letting the executive governor deliver justice. Thus, the military trial of Faiz may be the military’s last effort to reassert its control within the institution for survival, and if it happens, Imran’s potential military trial may extend beyond conventional politics. If he faces a military court, it will signal a decisive end to his political career, forever altering the country’s political landscape.