The more things change, the more they remain the same. This, sadly, is the apt description of the relations between India and Pakistan.

What changed in 2017, with a flicker of hope, is that both India and Pakistan simultaneously became full members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), one of the most important multilateral forums in Asia. This made many observers think that participation in SCO summits, at least, might nudge the leaders of the two countries to begin a normal dialogue.

The hope has been belied. Next month (October 15-16) Pakistan, after having taken up the rotating chairmanship of the SCO Council of Heads of Government (CHG), will be hosting the in-person summit in Islamabad. Naturally, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been invited. But he is unlikely to attend. He will most probably participate via video link, or send a representative.

Modi’s refusal to visit Pakistan to participate in the summit of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation has made SAARC dysfunctional. SAARC had its last summit in Kathmandu in 2014. (The host of the next summit was going to be Pakistan.)

The failure of SAARC has increased the responsibility of SCO. The reality is that India-Pakistan hostility has not similarly crippled SCO. It cannot, because the dynamics of SCO are different from those of SAARC. SCO’s founding members ─ China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan ─ are in effective control of that organization. (Iran joined SCO later in 2023 and Belarus in 2024.) Therefore, Indo-Pak hostility cannot hold SCO hostage.

The history of SCO summits since India and Pakistan became its full members shows that our two countries have not made any use of it for bilateral talks. Modi and Pakistan’s then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif participated in the SCO summit in Astana in 2017, but had no bilateral meeting. In 2018, Pakistan’s then President Mamnoon Hussain participated in the 18th SCO summit in Qingdao, but held no talks with Modi. In Bishkek in 2019, Modi and Imran Khan exchanged pleasantries in the Leaders’ Lounge, but that was all. Samarkand in 2022 also proved to be unproductive in this respect because there was no meeting between Shehbaz Sharif and Modi. India was the host nation for the summit in 2023, but Modi chose to hold it online, and Shehbaz Sharif spoke via video-link.

HOW DID WE LOSE THE UFA SPIRIT?

Interestingly, before India and Pakistan became full members of SCO and were participating in its summits as observers, there was one occasion that produced a substantive outcome through a face-to-face prime ministerial meeting. Not only did Modi and Nawaz Sharif have a bilateral meeting on the side lines of the SCO summit in Ufa (Russia) on July 10, 2015, but the two sides also issued a highly optimistic joint statement. It said:

“The meeting was held in a cordial atmosphere. The two leaders exchanged views on issues of bilateral and regional interest. They agreed that India and Pakistan have a collective responsibility to ensure peace and promote development. To do so, they are prepared to discuss all outstanding issues.

Both leaders condemned terrorism in all its forms and agreed to cooperate with each other to eliminate this menace from South Asia.

They also agreed on the following steps to be taken by the two sides:

1. A meeting in New Delhi between the two NSAs to discuss all issues connected to terrorism.
2. Early meetings of DG BSF and DG Pakistan Rangers followed by that of DGMOs.
3. Decision for release of fishermen in each other’s custody, along with their boats, within a period of 15 days.
4. Mechanism for facilitating religious tourism.
5. Both sides agreed to discuss ways and means to expedite the Mumbai case trial, including additional information like providing voice samples.

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif reiterated his invitation to Prime Minister Modi to visit Pakistan for the SAARC Summit in 2016. Prime Minister Modi accepted the invitation.”

Read this joint statement again. How different India-Pakistan relations would have been if the two sides had remained faithful to the commitments made in it ─ mutual cooperation “to eliminate the menace of terrorism from South Asia”; “facilitate religious tourism”; “expedite the trial” into the 2008 terror attack on Mumbai; and Modi’s acceptance of the invitation to participate in the SAARC Summit in Pakistan in 2016.

TIME FOR THE PEOPLE OF INDIA AND PAKISTAN TO SPEAK UP

This author has always believed that nations are bigger than their governments, and that the aspirations of the people are more important than the positions taken by their presidents, prime ministers and diplomats. The aspirations of the people of India, Pakistan, China ─ and, indeed, of all the countries in the region and beyond ─ seek peace, cooperation, friendship and collective progress. Therefore, regardless of the games politicians and diplomats play driven by their narrow understanding of national interests (in which narrower personal interests also often play a key role), it is important for intellectuals and experts to speak the truth.

The fundamental truth, as far as India and Pakistan are concerned, is that our two countries must not remain stuck inside the toxic circle of hostilities. Instead, we should neutralize this circle by drawing a larger circle of mutually beneficial and trust-promoting cooperation. Obviously, cooperation is only possible through dialogue. SCO, like SAARC, is a useful multilateral platform to initiate such dialogue.

SCO COOPERATION BRINGS MANY BENEFITS

The SCO’s very first goal, as enshrined in Article 1 of its Charter, is to “strengthen mutual trust, friendship and good-neighborliness between the member States”. India-Pakistan dialogue within the SCO framework can bring positive gains for our two countries ─ and also for the region as a whole ─ in several ways.

It will help New Delhi and Islamabad narrow their differences on Afghanistan. This will contribute to peace, normalcy, national reconciliation and reconstruction of a country whose people have suffered for so long due to external wars and internal strife.

Constructive engagement in SCO will promote connectivity between India and Pakistan. Here, it is instructive to recall what Modi himself had said at the SCO summit in Qingdao in 2018. “We have again reached a stage where physical and digital connectivity is changing the definition of geography. Therefore, connectivity with our neighborhood and in the SCO region is our priority.”

Modern physical, digital and energy connectivity will boost trade connectivity, business linkages, cultural exchanges and people-to-people contacts. Instead of divisive geo-politics monopolizing the Indo-Pak discourse, geo-economic, geo-cultural and geo-civilizational factors will take the center-stage. This enhances mutual security and builds mutual trust, which in turn can help our two countries find a peaceful and permanent solution even to the vexed Kashmir issue.

Therefore, the people of India and Pakistan must exert pressure on our leaderships to resume bilateral dialogue at the highest levels, both within and outside the SCO ambit, at the earliest.

IF INDIA AND CHINA CAN TALK, WHY NOT INDIA AND PAKISTAN?

India-China relations, too, are seriously strained. Nevertheless, signs of improvement are now clearly visible.

There is some cautious optimism that Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping may have a bilateral meeting when they attend the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, next month (October 22-24).

After prolonged talks at the military and diplomatic levels, the friction created by the military stand-off at Galvan Valley in June 2020 has been substantially resolved and troop disengagement at contentious points in eastern Ladakh has made considerable progress. The people of both India and China will greatly benefit if Modi-Xi meeting in Russia leads to reopening the closed doors of economic and other doors of cooperation as well as people-to-people contacts.

Why shouldn’t the leaders of India and Pakistan attempt the same by revisiting and reviving the commitments made at the meeting between Modi and Nawaz Sharif at the SCO summit in Ufa in 2015?

Sadly, the SCO summit in Islamabad next month will, in all likelihood, take place without India and Pakistan talking. Neither side appears keen to understand the other’s concerns and perspectives, and walk half the distance to meet the other. We do not know how long this logjam will continue. However, it is instructive to end this article with quote from a statesman-like speech by General Qamar Javed Bajwa, Pakistan’s former Chief of Army Staff, on 18 March 2021. He stated:

“It is time to bury the past and move forward…It is naive to apply the failed solutions of yesteryears to the challenges of today and tomorrow. [The choice between countries in the region is] whether to stay etched in the acrimony and toxicity of the past, continue promoting conflict and get into another vicious cycle of war, disease and destruction; or to move ahead, bring the dividends of our technological and scientific advancements to our people and usher in a new era of peace and prosperity.”